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Profile photo of Ronny Berndtsson

Ronny Berndtsson

Professor, Dep Director, MECW Dep Scientific Coordinator

Profile photo of Ronny Berndtsson

Is climate or direct human influence responsible for discharge decrease in the tunisian merguellil basin?

Author

  • Khaoula Khemiri
  • Sihem Jebari
  • Ronny Berndtsson
  • Khlifa Maalel

Summary, in English

Climate change and direct anthropogenic impact are recognized as two major factors affecting catchment runoff. This study investigated the separate effect of each of these factors for runoff from the important Tunisian Merguellil catchment. For this purpose, more than forty years of hydrological data were used. The methodology was based on hydrological characterization, NDVI index to monitor land use dynamics, and the Budyko approach to specify origin of change. The results show that hydrological change is much more important upstream than downstream. The last three decades display a 40% reduction in runoff. This is associated with the direct influence of humans, who are responsible for about 78% of the variation in flow. It appears that climate change contributes to less than about 22%. The combination of increased cultivated land and decreased annual rainfall is the main reason for reduced catchment runoff. Consequently, these effects threaten the sustainable runoff, water in reservoirs, and future water supply in general. Ultimately, the available runoff remains an important parameter and a key indicator to guide the choices of decision-makers and practitioners in current and future climatic conditions. This contributes to supporting sustainable management of remaining water resources.

Department/s

  • Centre for Advanced Middle Eastern Studies (CMES)
  • MECW: The Middle East in the Contemporary World
  • Division of Water Resources Engineering
  • LTH Profile Area: Water

Publishing year

2021-10-01

Language

English

Publication/Series

Water

Volume

13

Issue

19

Document type

Journal article

Publisher

MDPI AG

Topic

  • Oceanography, Hydrology, Water Resources

Keywords

  • Anthropogenic impact
  • Climate change
  • Runoff trend

Status

Published

ISBN/ISSN/Other

  • ISSN: 2073-4441