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Profile photo of Ronny Berndtsson

Ronny Berndtsson

Professor, Dep Director, MECW Dep Scientific Coordinator

Profile photo of Ronny Berndtsson

Evaluation of CMIP5 models for west and southwest Iran using TOPSIS-based method

Author

  • Reza Zamani
  • Ronny Berndtsson

Summary, in English

GCMs (general circulation models) are main tools for generating climate projections for climate change research in hydrology and water resources. Accordingly, evaluating the performance of these models in simulating future climate is very important for choice of proper models. In this study, performance of 20 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) model series was assessed using a technique for order performance by similarity to ideal solution (TOPSIS)-based approach together with normalized root mean square error (NRMSE), the Taylor skill score (STaylor), and two probability density function (PDF) skill scores. Precipitation and temperature data during 1976 to 2005 from three river basins including Zard River (ZR), Bakhtegan (BKH), and Ghareso (GH) in west and southwest Iran were used to select the best model. In general, models showed superiority in simulating temperature over precipitation. Based on the GCM ranking results for the ZR Basin, MIROC-ESM and IPSL-CM5A-LR were selected as the best and the weakest model, respectively. For the BKH Basin, the best model was BCC-CSM1.1 and the weakest IPSL-CM5A-MR and CCSM4. In other words, BCC-CSM1.1 had the maximum relative closeness to ideal solution. Based on the TOPSIS results, BCC-CSM1.1 and CanESM2 were the best models and IPSL-CM5A-MR the weakest model with a minimum relative closeness to the ideal solution in simulating temperature and precipitation for the GH basin. The approach presented in this study can be utilized to select appropriate climate models in other regions for future studies of climate change.

Department/s

  • Division of Water Resources Engineering
  • Centre for Advanced Middle Eastern Studies (CMES)
  • MECW: The Middle East in the Contemporary World

Publishing year

2019

Language

English

Pages

533-543

Publication/Series

Theoretical and Applied Climatology

Volume

137

Issue

1-2

Document type

Journal article

Publisher

Springer

Topic

  • Oceanography, Hydrology, Water Resources

Status

Published

Project

  • The Middle East in the Contemporary World (MECW)

ISBN/ISSN/Other

  • ISSN: 0177-798X