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This Regional Outlook focuses on the recent political developments in Syria and the implications for Rojava.
Syria is experiencing a significant escalation in violence, with the civil war reigniting in various regions. Islamist militants from the Syrian National Army (SNA) and Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) have made substantial territorial gains in the past week, resulting in the Assad regime's downfall as of 8 December 2024, after more than a decade of civil war in Syria.
This resurgence of conflict has led to worries among some who are fleeing their homes in search of safety, while others are celebrating the fall of the Assad regime that has ruled Syria for the past five decades. Especially at the Lebanese border crossing of Masnaa, we are seeing long convoys of Syrians returning to their country. There is also significant congestion at Turkey's Hatay border crossing of Cilvegözü, where Syrians under temporary protection in Turkey who are making a permanent return are being allowed to cross. There are approximately 6.8 million Syrians living outside of Syria, with various statuses such as refugees and temporary asylum seekers. The fate of all these people remains uncertain.
While the UN Secretary-General António Guterres calls all parties to engage seriously with the UN Special Envoy for Syria, Geir Pedersen, to chart a new, inclusive, and comprehensive approach to resolving the crisis and forming a functional government, the situation in Syria is very complicated by the involvement of multiple domestic, regional, and global actors. The fall of the Assad regime can be attributed to several factors: Russia's complete redirection of its military efforts to Ukraine since early 2022, the diminished capacity of Iran-backed militias and Hezbollah to support Syria following Israeli attacks, severe economic problems, and a military force that has lost its motivation and strength after years of prolonged conflict. In a recent statement, Israel's Prime Minister Netanyahu described Assad's fall as a historic opportunity for Israel, since it is perceived to weaken the regional influence of Iran, Israel’s primary enemy. Israel occupies the Golan Heights since 1967 and and has now also seized an extended buffer zone along its border. Israel also continues to carry out numerous air strikes across Syria, targeting Syrian military sites. The United States is preparing for the Trump era following the presidential elections. Based on previous experience, it is known that Trump is a populist and unpredictable president, making it difficult to predict what U.S. strategies and policies in the region will be. Trump’s new team, including key figures like Marco Rubio as Secretary of State and Pete Hegseth as Defense Secretary, suggests a potentially assertive stance. Notably, Trump's new administration appears to be more pro-Kurdish, which could significantly impact the balance of power in the region.
While these events unfold in western and southern Syria, Rojava (also known as the Autonomous Administration of North and East Syria, AANES) is not receiving much attention in the international media. The People's Protection Units (YPG) and Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) have both expressed optimism regarding the fall of Assad's regime. In a recent statement, the AANES extended its congratulations to all Syrians, calling the fall of Assad a significant moment and expressing hopes for a new chapter in Syria. These statements overall reflected a shared sense of hope and a commitment to constructive dialogue and collaboration in shaping Syria's future.
And yet, Rojava, which has been a beacon of Kurdish self-administration and democratic governance, is now under significant threat from both internal and external forces. Internally, there are tensions between the SDF and Arab tribes, which are related to competition over natural resources and political influence, highlighting the need for the AANES to consolidate its power and address grievances within the Arab population. In Manbij, there has been heavy clashes between the SDF and Turkey-backed SNA. The SDF has reported successfully repelling multiple attacks, but the situation remains highly volatile as numerous news sources report that Manbij is no longer under SDF control. Given the current circumstances, it seems reasonable to suggest that the city is likely to fall under the control of the SNA. Not only Manbij, but also Raqqa, Tabqa, and Deir ez-Zor are areas where Arabs are demographically more numerous compared to Kurds, and the future of cooperation between the Arabs and Kurds in these areas remains uncertain. Meanwhile, the SDF forces have captured the city of Deir el-Zor and taken control of Syria’s main border crossing with Iraq.
Externally, Turkish military operations aimed at weakening Kurdish control are a constant threat to the AANES. Turkey views the US-backed SDF and YPG as extensions of the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK). Turkey’s primary objective is to prevent the Kurdish autonomous region along its border from gaining a political status, which it views as a direct threat to its national security. To this end, Turkey has carried out several operations in northern Syria in recent years, establishing a buffer zone to push back Kurdish forces which has also resulted in the displacement of civilians. Notably, Turkey, in cooperation with allied jihadi groups, previously seized control of Afrin in 2018, which was under Rojava's control. These actions have drawn international criticism, with accusations of human rights violations and war crimes. In fact, Sweden halted arms trade with Turkey in 2019 in response to Turkey's military operations in northern Syria, which were widely criticized for human rights violations and war crimes. These restrictions were later lifted during Sweden's NATO application process. Turkey also plays a crucial role as an ally to the Syrian opposition movements, and it has been serving as a vital support system for the rebel forces in Idlib.
The future of AANES, which controls around 30% of the lands in Syria including oil-rich areas, hinges on its ability to navigate these complex dynamics. Maintaining US support is crucial, as American military presence provides a deterrent against Turkish aggression. However, the region must also address internal divisions and work towards greater Arab-Kurdish reconciliation to ensure long-term stability. In line with these needs, the SDF and the AANES have issued statements in the past week, urging all able-bodied individuals to join the defense efforts against the recent advances by Turkish-backed forces and other hostile groups. The SDF has also emphasized the importance of unity and resilience among the Kurdish, Arab, and other peoples within Rojava, stressing that their collective strength is crucial in facing the current threats. The administration has been organizing mass meetings and emergency committees to evaluate the political developments and coordinate their defensive strategies.
The opposition groups in Syria are highly fragmented, and we do not yet know how power struggles will unfold among them. One thing we do know is that HTS – and its leader, Abu Muhammad al-Jawlani – has roots in Al-Qaeda and ISIS. Although it is now presented in a more moderate light, many uncertainties remain. On the other hand, the Rojava experience, supported militarily by the US and the Western coalition, has fiercely fought against ISIS, heroically resisted during the Yazidi genocide, and aspires to implement an emancipatory ideological paradigm based on the principles of direct democracy, ecology, and gender equality. It should not be overlooked that the AANES rule has a Social Contract, a foundational document that safeguards these principles and ensures the representation and rights of Kurds, Arabs, Yazidis, Syriac-Assyrians, Turkmens, Armenians, and other peoples.
In the wake of Assad's fall, it is important to remember that negative peace does not always equate to positive peace. The Syrian people, in all their diversity and voices, must determine the ways to build a truly inclusive democratic Syria where all communities can coexist in peace.
The CMES Regional Outlook series provides fresh perspectives and in-depth analyses of current events in the MENA region. Based on the multi-disciplinary expertise held by researchers at CMES, the series provides explanations of topical developments on issues, such as mass protests, elections, cultural and religious affairs, migration patterns, foreign policy and security, environment and climate change.
